Pakistan’s Political Transformation in the 21st Century:

Pakistan’s Political Transformation in the 21st Century:

International, Regional, and Domestic Dimensions of a Strategic and Bureaucratic Reorientation

Author:

Dr. Masood Tariq

Independent political theorist

Karachi, Pakistan

drmasoodtariq@gmail.com

Date: May 27, 2025

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Abstract

This paper examines the ongoing political transformation in Pakistan across three interlinked domains: international, regional, and internal. It argues that Pakistan is undergoing a complex shift in its foreign policy, regional strategic alignments, and domestic political structure. These changes reflect the state’s evolving response to global multipolarity, regional instability, and internal demands for democratic reform and institutional rebalancing. Using an interdisciplinary approach, the paper synthesizes empirical data and scholarly analysis to assess Pakistan’s political trajectory and its implications for statecraft, governance, and policymaking.

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Table of Contents

1. Introduction

2. Methodology

3. Theoretical Framework

4. International Political Transformation

5. Regional Political Transformation

6. Internal Political Transformation

7. Policy Implications

8. Recommendations

9. Conclusion

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1. Introduction

Pakistan stands at a critical juncture in its political evolution. As the global order shifts toward multipolarity and regional dynamics undergo rapid transformation, Pakistan’s political landscape is responding through both structural adaptations and ideological realignments.

This paper explores Pakistan’s transformation across three major domains: international alignments, regional geopolitics, and internal political development, emphasizing the bureaucratic, strategic, and ideological responses of the state apparatus.

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2. Methodology

The research employs a qualitative methodology grounded in political science and international relations, using a comparative historical approach and secondary data analysis. Key sources include academic journals, policy briefs, government reports, and datasets on the Human Development Index (HDI), governance indicators, and foreign direct investment (FDI). Case studies on CPEC, Indo-Pak tensions, and domestic HDI disparities form the empirical basis for analyzing Pakistan’s political recalibration.

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3. Theoretical Framework

The analysis is situated within three theoretical paradigms:

Neorealism and Strategic Realignment: Examining how shifting power structures and regional alliances redefine Pakistan’s external behaviour.

Constructivism: Addressing the epistemological shifts in identity politics, especially regarding Punjab and Islam.

Institutionalism: Evaluating the role of bureaucratic inertia and reform within the state’s domestic governance architecture.

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4. International Political Transformation

The post-9/11 period marked Pakistan’s strategic subservience to U.S. counterterrorism interests. However, this era of dependency is fading as U.S. interest in the region diminishes and China’s influence grows.

The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), part of the Belt and Road Initiative, symbolizes this strategic realignment (Small, 2015; Wolf, 2019).

The U.S.-Pakistan relationship has declined due to divergent views on Afghanistan and Washington’s Indo-Pacific tilt.

Consequently, Pakistan is seeking partnerships within the Global South and Eurasian blocs, while recalibrating its role within organizations such as the SCO.

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5. Regional Political Transformation

In South Asia, Pakistan faces regional militarization and ideological polarization. Under Modi’s government, India’s assertive Hindu nationalism has escalated Kashmir tensions (Chacko, 2021).

The idea of a neutral Sikh state (Khalistan) as a buffer zone has gained strategic attention, especially amid the continued repression of Sikh identity by India.

The Afghan Taliban’s return to power and Pakistan’s evolving border strategy underscore the need for a westward geopolitical reorientation (Rashid, 2021).

Pakistan’s increasing cooperation with Central Asian republics and energy corridors like TAPI and CASA-1000 further align with this vision (Kugelman, 2022).

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6. Internal Political Transformation

Domestically, Pakistan’s political order is marked by uneven development, identity-based politics, and an ossified bureaucratic culture.

Developmental Disparities: Based on the HDI 2024 data, only 11 of Pakistan’s 170 districts are classified as ‘High HDI’, most in Central/Northern Punjab. Sindh, Balochistan, and Southern Punjab remain in the ‘Low’ or ‘Medium’ categories. This inequity reinforces regional grievances and institutional distrust.

Identity Reformation: A new Punjabi epistemology is emerging, based on pre-1947 cultural heritage and language, rejecting the homogenization imposed by Islamic nationalism. This transformation seeks to balance national unity with ethno-linguistic federalism.

Bureaucratic Strain: Pakistan’s centralized administrative model, inherited from colonial rule, is proving inadequate in addressing decentralized developmental and political demands.

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7. Policy Implications

Pakistan’s transformation has implications not only for academia but also for policy formulation:

Foreign Policy: Diversifying strategic partnerships beyond the West is no longer optional but essential. A balanced engagement with China, the Gulf, and Central Asia is crucial.

Regional Diplomacy: Pakistan must adopt a proactive diplomatic stance on South Asian minority movements, especially in Punjab, Kashmir, and Khalistan, to build strategic depth and soft power. A neutral, sovereign Khalistan could serve as a regional buffer to reduce Indo-Pak tensions. The continued Indian military suppression of Sikh nationalism has created an opening for Pakistan to diplomatically leverage Punjabi identity politics across borders.

Federal Governance: The HDI gaps suggest an urgent need for administrative and financial decentralization. Current NFC allocations, local government mechanisms, and resource distributions must be re-evaluated.

National Identity: A civilizational, inclusive national identity grounded in history, land, and culture—rather than religion alone—must be fostered through education and media reforms.

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8. Recommendations

To institutionalize Pakistan’s political transformation, the following reforms are necessary:

Reinvigorate Civil Service Reforms: Shift from a colonial command model to a service-oriented bureaucracy responsive to provincial needs.

Reform the National Finance Commission (NFC): Integrate HDI-based and need-based distribution formulas alongside population metrics.

Institutionalize Regional Strategic Studies: Establish state-sponsored think tanks to assess Punjab, Kashmir, and Central Asian policies independent of traditional security paradigms.

Constitutional Clarity on Ethnic Autonomy: Revisit Article 153–160 of the Constitution to ensure true federalism and regional parity.

Education and Media Policy Reform: Promote linguistic and cultural diversity through decentralized curricula and regional media programming.

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9. Conclusion

Pakistan’s political transformation is multidimensional—anchored in geopolitical realignment, regional flux, and internal structural evolution. The state’s response, however, must transcend short-term crisis management. It must instead adopt a long-term policy shift toward decentralized governance, pluralist identity, and regional connectivity. The international, regional, and domestic arenas are no longer separable: they form a single matrix of transformation that demands holistic and institutional responses. Pakistan’s future lies in recognizing this interdependence and recalibrating its bureaucratic, strategic, and ideological core.

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References

Chacko, P. (2021). Nationalism and Populism in Modi’s India. Routledge.

Khan, A. (2023). Populism and the Crisis of Political Legitimacy in Pakistan. Asian Survey, 63(1), 44–68.

Kugelman, M. (2022). Pakistan’s Regional Outlook: Between Strategic Realignment and Domestic Chaos. Wilson Center.

Rashid, A. (2021). Return of the Taliban: Implications for Pakistan. Foreign Affairs, 100(5), 34–42.

Siddiqa, A. (2021). Pakistan’s New Geoeconomic Pivot: Rhetoric or Reality? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Small, A. (2015). The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics. Oxford University Press.

Wolf, S. O. (2019). The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor of the Belt and Road Initiative: Concept, Context and Assessment. Springer.

Yusuf, M. (2023). Economic Reform and Political Stability in Pakistan: The IMF Challenge. Brookings Institution.

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Author Biography

Dr. Masood Tariq is a Karachi-based politician and political theorist. He formerly served as Senior Vice President of the Pakistan Muslim Students Federation (PMSF) Sindh, Councillor of the Municipal Corporation Hyderabad, Advisor to the Chief Minister of Sindh, and Member of the Sindh Cabinet.

His research explores South Asian geopolitics, postcolonial state formation, regional nationalism, and inter-ethnic politics, with a focus on the Punjabi question and Cold War strategic alignments.

He also writes on Pakistan’s socio-political and economic structures, analysing their structural causes and proposing policy-oriented solutions aligned with historical research and contemporary strategy.

His work aims to bridge historical scholarship and strategic analysis to inform policymaking across South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East.